ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPORT VOLUMES OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

Tsvil Mariya; Petrosyan Sianna; Shpakova Alina

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ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPORT VOLUMES OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

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ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPORT VOLUMES OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

Section: PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNDER DIGITALIZATION

Proceedings: PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF DIGITALIZATION. VOL.2

VAC 01.01.2005 Теория вероятностей и математическая статистика UDK 50 Общие вопросы математических и естественных наук UDK 33 Экономика. Экономические науки GRNTI 06.52 Экономическое развитие и рост. Прогнозир-ние и планирование экономики. Экономич. циклы и кризисы OKSO 01.04.02 Прикладная математика и информатика OKSO 38.07.02 Экономическая бехопасность BBK 20 Естественные науки в целом BBK 65 Экономика. Экономические науки TBK 60 Естественные науки в целом TBK 77 Экономика. Бухгалтерский учет. Финансы BISAC MAT000000 General

Tsvil Mariya ¹

Petrosyan Sianna ²

Shpakova Alina ³

Author and publication information

Authors:

1. Russian Customs Academy (Informatika i informacionnye tamozhennye tehnologii, Associate professor)
employee
g. Rostova-na-Donu, Russian Federation

2. Rostov branch of Russian customs academy (Informatics and information customs technologies)
student
st.Staronizhesteblievskaya, Krasnodar, Russian Federation

3. Rostov branch of Russian customs academy (Informatics and information customs technologies)
student
Taganrog, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation

Type:

Сonference article

Published:

06.12.2019

Subject area:

VAC 01.01.2005 Теория вероятностей и математическая статистика
UDK 50 Общие вопросы математических и естественных наук
UDK 33 Экономика. Экономические науки
GRNTI 06.52 Экономическое развитие и рост. Прогнозир-ние и планирование экономики. Экономич. циклы и кризисы
OKSO 01.04.02 Прикладная математика и информатика
OKSO 38.07.02 Экономическая бехопасность
BBK 20 Естественные науки в целом
BBK 65 Экономика. Экономические науки
TBK 60 Естественные науки в целом
TBK 77 Экономика. Бухгалтерский учет. Финансы
BISAC MAT000000 General

Language:

Russian

Keywords:

multiplicative model, export, Republic of Armenia, forecasting, trend equation

Abstract and keywords

Abstract (English):
In this article econometric models of time series on export volumes of the Republic of Armenia on quarterly data in the period from 2015 to 2019 were obtained. Exponential smoothing model and multiplicative model were Constructed. And also the forecast of export volumes in value terms for the IV quarter of 2019 is made.

Keywords:
multiplicative model, export, Republic of Armenia, forecasting, trend equation

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References

1. Tsvil M. M., Karapetyan, A. A., Forecasting with adaptive techniques, according to the foreign trade of the Southern Customs Directorate // Zh. Academic Bulletin of the Rostov branch of Russian Customs Academy/2016.

2. Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia. Official site. URL: https://www.armstat.am/ru

3. The official website of the Eurasian Economic Commission. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org

4. Eliseeva I.I. Econometrics: textbook. M.: Finance and Statistics, 2017.

5. Tsvil M. M. Econometrics: lecture notes on academic discipline. Rostov on / D: Russian customs Academy, Rostov branch, 2012.

6. Larkin E.V. Time series analysis and forecasting according to customs statistics: St. Petersburg: Troitsky Most, 2016.

7. Tsvil M. M. Econometric modeling of volumes of customs payments in the region of activity of the Rostov customs // Academic Bulletin of the Rostov branch of the Russian customs Academy. 2019. No. 1(34)

8. Tsvil M. M. Time series analysis and forecasting: proc. benefit. Rostov on / D: Russian customs Academy, Rostov branch, 2016.

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