ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE VOLUME OF MUTUAL TRADE OF THE EAEU MEMBER STATES

Tsvil Mariya; Guleva Ella; Zubkova Margarita

doi:doi:10.26526/conferencearticle_61cc296bccac42.37597958

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE VOLUME OF MUTUAL TRADE OF THE EAEU MEMBER STATES

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ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE VOLUME OF MUTUAL TRADE OF THE EAEU MEMBER STATES

Section: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Proceedings: ECONOMY OF RUSSIA: PROBLEMS, TRENDS, FORECASTS

GRNTI 06.01 Общие вопросы экономических наук GRNTI 06.52 Экономическое развитие и рост. Прогнозир-ние и планирование экономики. Экономич. циклы и кризисы

TBK 77 Экономика. Бухгалтерский учет. Финансы TBK 7713 Макроэкономика TBK 7714 Микроэкономика TBK 7717 Экономика предприятия (фирмы) TBK 7726 Управленческий учет TBK 777 Внешнеэкономическая деятельность (ВЭД)

BISAC BUS000000 General

Tsvil Mariya ¹

Guleva Ella ²

Zubkova Margarita ³

Author and publication information

Authors:

1. Russian Customs Academy (Informatika i informacionnye tamozhennye tehnologii, Associate professor)
g. Rostova-na-Donu, Russian Federation

2. Russian Customs Academy (Rostov affiliate) (Department of Informatics and Information Customs Technologies)

3. Russian Customs Academy (Rostov affiliate) (Department of Informatics and Information Customs Technologies)

Type:

Сonference article

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26526/conferencearticle_61cc296bccac42.37597958

Published:

29.12.2021

Subject area:

06.01
06.52
77
7713
7714
7717
7726
777
BUS000000

Language:

Russian

Keywords:

EEC member states, mutual trade, multiplicative model, exponential smoothing, forecasting, trend equation

Abstract and keywords

Abstract (English):
The article provides econometric time series models for the volumes of mutual trade of the EAEU member states based on quarterly data from the 1st quarter of 2017 to the 3rd quarter of 2021. An exponential smoothing model and a multiplicative model are built. Also, a forecast was made for the volume of mutual trade in the IV quarter of 2021

Keywords:
EEC member states, mutual trade, multiplicative model, exponential smoothing, forecasting, trend equation

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References

1. Eliseeva I.I. Econometrics: textbook. M.: Finance and Statistics, 2017. 453s.

2. Kremer N.S., Putko B.A. Econometrics: textbook.Moscow:Unity-Dana, 2017. 328 p.

3. Larkin E.V. Time series analysis and forecasting according to customs statistics: textbook.St. Petersburg: Troitsky Bridge, 2016.

4. Tsvil M. M. Time series analysis and forecasting: studies.stipend. Rostov n/A: RTA, Rostov branch, 2016. 135 p.

5. Zakharin, O. S. The influence of integration processes within the EAEU on mutual trade of the participating countries / O. S. Zakharin // Academic journalism. - 2021. - No. 5. - pp. 197-208.

6. Tsvil M.M. Econometric modeling of customs payments volumes in the region of Rostov customs activity // Academic Bulletin of the Rostov branch of the Russian Customs Academy. 2019. No1(34). pp. 61-69.

7. Official website of the Eurasian Economic Commission [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/

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