The article examines topical issues of the impact of the covid pan-demic on the economic development of Russia. The socio-economic consequences associated with the coronavirus crisis are analyzed on the basis of research by scientists, as well as various expert assessments. The peculiarities of the state of Russia are characterized, the measures used by the government to stabilize the socio-economic processes in the country are revealed. The subject of the research is the socio-economic problems arising from the impact of the pandemic on the Russian economy. The aim of the work is to analyze socio-economic problems and determine the possibilities of preventing socio-economic losses with the help of government measures.
pandemic, covid, coronavirus, society, economy, socio-economic consequences
Maintaining the socio-economic sustainable development of society is the most important task of the state, since it creates the basis for a balanced economy of the country and strengthening its competitive advantages in the world market.
The object of the research is the economy in the post-like period.
The subject of the research is the socio-economic problems of society associated with the pandemic.
The purpose of the work is to analyze socio-economic problems in the era of a pandemic, to prevent further losses with the help of government measures in Russia, which determines the timeliness and relevance of the study.
The main tasks are related to the characterization and assessment of the consequences of the pandemic on the development of the socio-economic sphere of the country, the formation of directions for countering the destructive processes in the economy and society, and the choice of priorities.
Today it is obvious that a covid epidemic is having devastating consequences both for Russia and for the world economy as a whole. Experts predict a decline in GDP in the near future, which will further worsen, in their opinion, the socio-economic situation in the country [1].
First of all, we note that the coronavirus has certain features. The crisis situation was predicted more than fifteen years ago. The current economic crisis in Russia and the world is unfolding against the background of a structural transition to a new world economic order. Obviously, the current transition differs from the previous one in the technological support of this process, which contributes not only to the emergence of new risks and opens up new opportunities for development. More details about the features of the transformational structural crisis caused by the change in the world economic order and about the impact of the process on the Russian economy are considered in the fundamental scientific work of S. Glazyev "Leap into the future. Russia in new technological and world economic structures"[2].
Surveys conducted by the Romir and Gallup International research centers indicate that due to the shutdown of enterprises caused by the outbreak of COVID-19, 12% of Russian citizens lost their jobs by the end of April 2020, 30% of respondents stated that they were transferred to a part-time worker day, and 32% were forced to go on unpaid leave. At the same time, according to experts, more than a third of the population has lost a significant part of their income [3].
With all the negative consequences, the modern era provides unique opportunities to strengthen its position in the market. Those who develop solutions using new technologies continue to work quickly and safely, providing financial flexibility, reducing the technology costs of businesses during a pandemic.
The influence of high technology is also noticeable in everyday life. Thus, one can observe a sharp change in attitudes towards the use of such applications as "Zoom", "Slack", "Microsoft'sTeams" and others. They have become common tools for millions of people in both personal and corporate communications.
From our point of view, one should not exaggerate the role of technology, underestimating the importance of social factors - there is a person behind every action, decision, achievement. However, there is debate about the economy based on artificial intelligence, since the issue is not as simple as some seem.
With the help of government measures, it is possible to achieve a significant improvement in the economy in a country that has found itself in a protracted recession due to the introduction of bans due to the epidemic. Practice shows that the revival of trading activity after the lifting of restrictions after the first wave of the pandemic contributes to the return of buyers and sellers to the market, stabilizing demand. However, as evidenced by the current situation, government financial support is more beneficial to large enterprises with a larger capitalization, and many small owners continue to go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, the opportunity to get out of the crisis can also stimulate small entrepreneurs with flexibility. It can be seen that while large grocery retailers are trying to clean up the living lines of disgruntled shoppers, small local restaurants are quickly turning into retailers, redirecting their strategy to sell products to end consumers.
Clearly, in an environment of increased volatility, the combination of scalability and flexibility will inevitably lead to short- to medium-term business success, large or small. However, changes in the long term need to be more fundamental [4]. Resilience combined with flexibility should become the main principles of business leaders' activities, helping the company, industry, country out of the current crisis, making up for pandemic losses.
It is believed that despite the support measures taken by the government (a six-month deferral for all taxes excluding VAT, a 2-fold reduction in insurance premiums, from 30 to 15%, the minimum wage for workers who have lost income, etc.), are insufficient to prevent further consequences. coronavirus crisis, which may be more serious than after the first strike of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 [5].
As practice has shown, the socio-economic measures of the government for Russians turned out to be real support. The downturn in the Russian economy due to the pandemic is less significant than experts predicted, the situation in the country is not as critical as predicted.
Against the background of a seven-year period of stagnation, accompanied by a decline in the level of well-being of the population, Russia faced two huge problems at once: the coronavirus pandemic that gripped the world, and the global economic crisis. The latter provoked the collapse of world prices for hydrocarbons and fuel more than twice. The current crisis is characterized by three main parameters: rising inflation; loss of working days; falling prices and demand for Russian export goods, of which 90% are raw materials and semi-raw materials [6].
It should be noted that inflation may exceed the level set in the federal budget, given the growing domestic prices due to the fall in GDP and the ruble exchange rate, but, on the other hand, inflation growth may be restrained by the fall in consumer demand.
As you know, according to the requirements of the President of the Russian Federation, the provision of "non-working days" during the period of April-May self-isolation at the place of residence was carried out subject to the preservation of jobs and incomes of citizens, which played a positive role.
The Russian economy was affected not only by the pandemic, but also by the state of the world economy due to covid, which provoked a drop in demand for Russian raw materials. But this can be viewed as a temporary phenomenon.
According to the estimates of the Department of Labor and Employment in the Tyumen region, the tension on the labor market is increasing, unemployment is growing [7]. But, at the same time, the regional administration provides substantial targeted support to various groups of the population: families with children, businessmen, etc., which allows solving not only the tasks of the first necessity, but also saving the lives of people, which is the most significant.
As shown by a rapid survey of the population of Tyumen, conducted by the author at the end of 2020, a reduction is expected in almost every commercial organization of small business, and about 18% of employees of state organizations are warned about dismissal or transfer to part-time work. It is important to note that the state is taking measures to reduce tension in the labor market, stimulating hiring, but also measures to save human lives, which is a priority. This is what the majority of the respondents (over 60%) support and are ready to "endure".
The Russian government is taking unprecedented measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on people's quality of life.
Note that some researchers, in particular, the authors of the monograph “Society and Pandemic. Experience and Lessons of Combating COVID - 19 in Russia ”, a group of Russian scientists together with government experts assess the measures taken by the government as a whole positively. Despite the fact that the amount of support is less than in most developed countries (it is only 2.7% of GNP), a large share of aid falls not on state guarantees, but on real subsidies, the authors state [8]. Scientists from HSE University, Lomonosow MSU, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, FRIMF of the RF, VTsIOM took part in the work.
Obviously, in the context of the outbreak of a pandemic, the role of the state increases, since contradictions are aggravated, primarily in the economic and social spheres, and only the state can take on the solution of these problems, when the state, public structures, social groups, civil society institutions work in the same direction complementing each other and building on each other. This is a basic problem not only for our country, but for the entire world community.
However, it is trust that is the key resource in the era of the modern crisis, which is characterized as systemic, believes the First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia A. Belousov [9]. Precisely because the global crisis is acquiring a systemic character, trust is becoming a key resource for an effective state. Because the effectiveness of the state and state institutions is based on the trust of the population, various social groups in society.
According to S. Glazyev, it is extremely important for Russia to get out of the wreckage of the old world economic order, in which the country found itself after the destruction of the USSR. This is possible through the formation of institutions of a new order and the implementation of a new socio-economic policy of advanced development on an advanced technological basis. This policy presupposes strategic planning, deployment of public-private partnership mechanisms, and a joint public-private development program [2]. Regulation of the economy will not only stop the export of capital from the country, but will also contribute to its growth in the future, contributing to an increase in human capital. Such a policy will stimulate innovative activity in the country and make Russia the leader of a new world economic order without catastrophic socio-economic losses associated with the pandemic.
At the session "A Difficult Conversation about Economic Growth." On January 15, 2021, representatives of the Russian government discussed contemporary issues, including the role of the state in creating favorable conditions for the development of the economy [10].
Thus, the head of the Ministry of Finance A. Siluanov indicated that economic growth is only one of the tools, growth can be different: not always growth is able to create a long-term surplus product that ensures the well-being of citizens and their quality of life.
The Minister of Economic Development M. Reshetnikov noted that welfare is not just the income of the population. These are housing conditions, the quality of healthcare, the elimination of the digital divide, opportunities for self-realization. All of these areas are included in the national development goals outlined in July 2020, where the concepts of economic growth and well-being become "voluminous and complex".
An addition to this reasoning was made by W. Mau regarding the super-soft monetary policy, which generates an increase in inequality: those who have a large amount of assets start earning more, and not those who work better and more productively. Moreover, the owners of assets turn out to be incomparably richer than those who work for a salary.
The participants in the discussion unanimously recognized that investments will play a leading role in the development of both the economy as a whole and individual industries, but it is still not advisable to consider the state as a key investor.
Any crises give rise to the need to reform what needs improvement, as well as to carry out structural changes. This is what the government was doing along with the fight against the consequences of the pandemic. So, taxes in the oil sector have increased, in small business and IT - have decreased. The structure of expenses has changed: support is provided, first of all, to those who need it. Abolished many outdated regulations that hindered the normal development of business.
Many experts compare the coronavirus pandemic with a war, as they had to face many factors that are not directly related to economic laws. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 could have provoked the emergence of a new model of economic growth, but this did not happen, since almost all countries were engaged primarily in the elimination of the consequences of the crisis. As a result, it was quickly dealt with without radical reforms. The result is a decade with low inflation, low investment, rising inequality and insufficient economic growth.
At the time of the pandemic, we found ourselves in an extremely favorable macroeconomic situation: Russia has an unprecedentedly low public debt, low inflation, and relatively low unemployment. If the government manages to turn the economy in the right direction without disrupting these macroeconomic conditions, Russia has the prospects to enter the trajectory of sustainable growth. Moreover, at the level of citizens' expectations, and not just the growth of statistical indicators.
Today, against the background of aggravated political relations in the world arena, it is vitally important to make the country self-sufficient in all respects, get rid of dependence, gradually abandon dollar dependence, create its own electronic environment based on domestic developments, dependence on social networks. All these factors make the Russian economy vulnerable and pose a serious threat to the stabilization of socio-economic relations, regardless of the pandemic. It is important not to get stuck in post-lobe syndrome. It should be understood that Russia is a self-sufficient country, and it has everything for development and prosperity. Russia needs an economic growth that would lead to an increase in the welfare and quality of life of the population.
The time has come to correct the mistakes of the 90s, to make plans for the future (a political prerogative), in which Russia itself should take the central place. Some socio-economic problems lie on the surface and require urgent resolution. Companies bought up by foreign investors bring income not to Russia, but to other countries, and we, consumers, buying these products every day, support not our Russian economy, losing huge profits.
Russia should rely on the intellectualization of the economy through the development of education, and not on robotization and digitalization, based on the fact that in the economy of any country the main thing is a person, his quality of life, which is detailed in an article published by the author in 2019 [11].
It is impossible not to notice the positive tendencies in the fight against covid, and, consequently, in the stabilization of socio-economic relations. In the context of growing morbidity, falling real incomes, rising unemployment, the decisive factor for maintaining the socio-political stability of the country is the people's confidence in the authorities, the ability to rally around their state and its leaders.
The 2020-2021 pandemic demanded that the economy be sacrificed in order to save human lives, demonstrating to society that it should be the main thing in the perspective of the development of the entire human community. It is necessary to focus on solving social problems, thanks to which the economy will also be strengthened.
The most contradictory predictive assessments are expressed regarding the postcoid economy, there are different points of view, but Russia has its own path, its own choice, an orientation towards self-sufficiency while maintaining a balance in the world.
It seems that one should proceed from the values of the founder of economic sociology, academician TI Zaslavskaya, who said 14 years ago: "… I refer to the first set of values as“ moral balance with the world" [12], and, most likely, she was right.
1. It is not the virus that is terrible, but the crisis. How the pandemic and the collapse of the ruble will affect the Russian economy. URL: https://www.pravmir.ru/strashen-ne-virus-a-krizis-kak-pandemiya-i-obval-rublya-otrazyatsya-na-rossijskoj-ekonomike/ (appeal date: 05.11.2020).
2. Glazyev S. Leap into the future. Russia in new technological and world economic structures. (Collection of "Izborsk club". M.: Book world, 2018. 768 P.
3. Pandemic or economic crisis: which is killing people more? URL: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2927075.html (appeal date: 05.11.2020).
4. World Economic Forum: how to survive for business in a pandemic. URL: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2927071.html (appeal date 05.11.2020).
5. Nigmatullin R., Nigmatullin B. Pandemic. Economic crisis. The economic state of Russia. URL: https://e-vid.ru/ekonomika/190520/pandemiya-mirovoy-krizis-ekonomicheskoe-sostoyanie-rossii (appeal date: 05.11.2020).
6. Soldatova S. S., Pivkina K. R. Economic consequences of the pandemic "COVID-19" for Russia // Scientific and educational journal for students and teachers "StudNet". 2020. № 2. P. 260 - 265.
7. Information about the situation on the labor market in the Tyumen region. https://depzan.admtyumen.ru/OIGV/employment/actions/directions/more.htm?id=11878731.
8. Russian scientists have assessed the impact of the pandemic on the economy. URL: https://webkamerton.ru/2020/10/rossiyskie-uchyonye-ocenili-vliyanie-pandemii-na-ekonomiku (appeal date: 11.11.2020).
9. Andrey Belousov: this decade will force Russia and the world to radically change the development model. URL: https://aurora.network/articles/165-interv-ju/85607-andrey-belousov-jeto-desjatiletie-zastavit-rossiju-i-mir-v-korne-izmenit-model-razvitija (appeal date 20.11.2020).
10. Postmoid Economy: Growth Formula: https://ruskline.ru/opp/2021/01/18/postkovidnaya_ekonomika_formula_rosta (appeal date: 17.03.2021).
11. Antipina NL, Kalinina AV, Moor SM Socio-economic problems of intellectualization of society // Bulletin of SurGU 2019. Iss. 4 (26). P 7 - 14.
12. Zaslavskaya T. I. "... I knew from childhood that the most interesting and worthy occupation is science" // Sociological journal. 2007. № 3. P 124 - 136.
