BISAC EDU000000 General
BISAC LAW000000 General
BISAC MAT000000 General
BISAC MED000000 General
BISAC NAT000000 General
BISAC PHI000000 General
BISAC POL000000 General
BISAC SOC000000 General
The socio-demographic situation in the Russian Far East for three decades has been characterized by a steady downward trend in the resident population, which negatively affects the formation and use of the region's labor resources. The main reason for this situation is interregional migration outflow. The priority of state policy in the Far East is to regulate labor potential, rationalize the structure of employment and population by influencing migration flows.
labor potential, population, employment, unemployment, migration, the Far East
Introduction
The Russian Far East has become a strategic area at the national level and "a national priority for the entire XXI century." In modern conditions, sustainable economic growth is ensured not only by economic and natural resource potential, but above all, by the population living in a given territory, the structure and dynamics of demographic indicators, and the quality of the workforce capable of implementing large-scale projects.
The main problems hindering the economic development of the region are the unfavorable demographic situation, the long-term large-scale outflow of the population and the associated shortage of labor resources.
Purpose of the study – to assess the possibilities of forming the labor potential of the Russian Far East at the expense of its own demographic resources.
Materials and methods
To assess the formation of the labor potential of the Russian Far East, the data contained in the information and statistical materials prepared by the Federal State Statistics Service were used. To assess the demographic resources of the region, the features of changes in the natural and migration movement and their impact on the process of formation of labor potential are analyzed.
Results and discussion
Despite the introduction of a number of institutional decisions, there have been no changes in the demographic sphere. The process of reducing the resident population in the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) continues. As of January 1, 2020, the population was 8,169.2 thousand people (taking into account the Republic of Buryatia and the Zabaykalsky Krai, which became part of the district at the end of 2018), compared with the beginning of 2019, decreased by 19.4 thousand people. The largest losses in the resident population were incurred by the southern regions located in more favorable natural and climatic conditions with a more diversified economy - Primorsky Krai (6,850 people), Khabarovsk Krai (5,830 people), Amur Oblast (3,150 people). In the Far East North, the population decreased by 4,173 people. The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Republic of Buryatia are the subjects where the population increased by 4,987 and 2,664, respectively, due to the excess of natural growth over the migration outflow.
The continuing decline in the demographic potential of the region is mainly a consequence of the migration outflow of the population, which in 2018-2019 exceeded the natural population decline by 4.5 times. In 2019, the negative balance of migration decreased (minus 10,539 people) compared to 2018 (minus 33,145 people), due to a decrease in the ratio of the number of departures to arrivals in the FEFD: in 2018 there were more departures by 10.1%, in 2019 - by 3.2%. A negative migration balance is typical for most of the Far Eastern regions (except for the Republic of Buryatia, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of Primorsky Krai, Amur Oblast) and it is formed due to the interregional migration flow, and migration with the countries of the near and far abroad slightly compensates for it.
The factor of population decline, along with the migration outflow, is the natural decline, which has been observed in the FEFD since 2017 (in 2012-2016, the decline in the population was compensated by natural population growth). In 2019, the population of the region, as a result of natural decline, decreased by 8,881 people (2018 - 883 people, 2017 - 142 people). The reason for the natural decline in the population is the continuing decline in the birth rate of the population against the background of an increase in the death rate of the population. Due to the younger age structure of the population and ethnic composition, the birth rate in the region (11.9 o/oo, 2019) exceeds the national average (10.9 o/oo, 2019) [1]. All Far Eastern subjects are characterized by a decrease in the number of births as a result of a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age due to low fertility in the 1990s. This trend will continue in the near future. Natural growth was preserved in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Republic of Buryatia, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.
Despite the population loss, the age structure of the FEFD differs from the national one. Intensive migration processes of the previous decades have formed a population here with a predominance of young ages. The share of the population under the working age in 2018 was 20.9% (tab. 1), yielding in this indicator to the Southern Federal District (18.2%), the Siberian Federal District (20.3%), and the Urals (20.5%). In the Far Eastern regions, there is a low proportion of people over working age - 22.3% (RF - 25.9%), lower only in the North Caucasus (18.4%) and a high proportion of people of working age - 56.8% (RF– 55.4 %). But in recent years, there has been a tendency not only for a quantitative decrease in the working-age population, but also for its qualitative deterioration - the aging of the economically active part of the population. This is due to the exhaustion of the possibilities for its growth, due to the transition of the part of the population born to the population that is well-off from the demographic point of view, to the category older than the working age, but most importantly, by the migration outflow.
Predictive estimates indicate a worsening of the situation with the age structure of the population, a limitation of the needs of the economic complex in labor resources, an increase in the demographic burden of the elderly on citizens of working age [3]. Therefore, despite the fact that the FEFD has a low and declining level of general unemployment in recent years (7.4% in 2011 and 6.3% in 2018), the region is interested in attracting labor resources, since employers feel the need for labor resources. The lack of personnel in a number of industries in certain specialties, the discrepancy between the need for labor and the availability of labor resources in the territorial and sectoral sections leads to the attraction of foreign labor migrants. Large consumers of foreign labor are Primorsky and Khabarovsky Krai, Sakhalin Oblast (tab. 2). In recent years, thanks to measures taken at the federal and regional levels, the scale of the registered number of foreign labor migrants in the FEFD has begun to decline. In the period 2011-2018, the number of foreign citizens who had a valid work permit decreased by 3.8 times, and the number of labor migrants who had a patent for employment decreased from 78.1 thousand to 66.7 thousand people. The bulk of labor migrants are in the shadows, shaping the processes of illegal migration and latent employment of foreign labor.
It would be expedient to satisfy the need for workers by increasing labor mobility and attracting people to the region from other Russian territories. But FEFD itself is a donor of other subjects of the Russian Federation, which lack labor resources.
Table 1
Change in the age structure of the population in FEFD subjects, % [5]
|
|
younger than working age |
working age |
over working age |
|||
|
2011 |
2018 |
2011 |
2018 |
2011 |
2018 |
|
|
The Russian Federation |
16.5 |
18.7 |
60.9 |
55.4 |
22.6 |
25.9 |
|
Far Eastern Federal District |
18.6 |
20.9 |
62.3 |
56.9 |
19.1 |
22.2 |
|
The Republic of Buryatia |
21.7 |
24.6 |
61.0 |
54.8 |
17.3 |
20.6 |
|
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
23.5 |
24.8 |
63.1 |
57.6 |
13.4 |
17.6 |
|
Zabaykalsky Krai |
21.0 |
22.8 |
61.4 |
56.3 |
17.6 |
20.9 |
|
Kamchatka Krai |
17.4 |
18.8 |
64.7 |
60.2 |
17.9 |
21.0 |
|
Primorsky Krai |
15.6 |
17.9 |
62.4 |
57.0 |
22.0 |
25.1 |
|
Khabarovsk Krai |
16.0 |
19.1 |
62.9 |
57.7 |
21.1 |
23.2 |
|
Amur Oblast |
18.5 |
20.5 |
61.3 |
56.2 |
20.2 |
23.3 |
|
Magadan Oblast |
17.1 |
18.9 |
65.3 |
59.1 |
17.6 |
22.0 |
|
Sakhalin Oblast |
17.0 |
19.7 |
62.7 |
56.6 |
20.3 |
23.7 |
|
JAO |
18.9 |
21.1 |
61.1 |
55.6 |
20.0 |
23.0 |
|
CAO |
22.2 |
23.1 |
67.0 |
61.7 |
10.8 |
15.2 |
Therefore. "by means of migration policy that relies on attracting migrants from other regions of the country. this problem cannot be solved" [4].
In 2018. the number of unemployed in the FEFD amounted to 272 thousand people, a decrease in comparison with 2011 by 83 thousand people (tab. 3). The unemployment rate was 6.3%. which is the lowest value for 2000-2018. A decrease in the unemployment rate was typical for all (except for the Republic of Buryatia, Magadan Oblast) FEFD subjects. Regional differences also persist: low unemployment rates in recent years have been recorded in Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (3.1%), the highest in Zabaykalsky Krai (10.2%), the Republic of Buryatia (9.3%). Problems in the regional labor market are associated with the predominance of single-industry settlements, limited mobility of the population due to large distances between local labor markets [2].
Table 2
The need for workers, declared by employers to the bodies of the employment service, and the number of foreign citizens, with a valid work permit in the FEFD [5]
|
|
The need for workers declared by employers to the employment service, people |
Foreign citizens with a valid work permit, people |
||
|
2011 |
2018 |
2011 |
2018 |
|
|
Far Eastern Federal District |
10 8534 |
20 2615 |
90 774 |
23 830 |
|
The Republic of Buryatia |
6 594 |
10 194 |
2 269 |
558 |
|
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
8 696 |
9 312 |
9 668 |
637 |
|
Zabaykalsky Krai |
2 431 |
15 248 |
8 647 |
3 244 |
|
Kamchatka Krai |
4 359 |
6 016 |
5 003 |
16 |
|
Primorsky Krai |
49 475 |
65 044 |
30 624 |
5 837 |
|
Khabarovsk Krai |
15 317 |
16 650 |
12 073 |
4 879 |
|
Amur Oblast |
8 588 |
55 714 |
7 386 |
4 677 |
|
Magadan Oblast |
3 185 |
2 770 |
586 |
300 |
|
Sakhalin Oblast |
6 425 |
12 508 |
10 843 |
1 700 |
|
JAO |
2 807 |
7 979 |
3 363 |
1 948 |
|
CAO |
657 |
1 180 |
672 |
34 |
In 2018, the employment rate in the FEFD was 61% (2011 - 62.8%. 2015 - 64.2%). Among the Far Eastern territories, a high level of employment is observed in Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (75.4%). the smallest is in the Republic of Buryatia (54.6%).
According to the Agency for the Development of Human Capital in the Far East, in accordance with the implementation of measures to increase the indicators of socio-economic development of the FEFD, significant growth in employment is expected in such industries, as the extraction and processing of oil and gas; coal mining, ore and gold; fishing and aquaculture; timber industry.
Table 3
Workforce in FEFD, thousand people [5]
|
|
Labor force |
including |
Unemployment rate. % |
|||||
|
employed |
unemployed |
|||||||
|
2011 |
2018 |
2011 |
2018 |
2011 |
2018 |
2011 |
2018 |
|
|
Russian Federation |
75 779 |
76 190 |
70 857 |
72 532 |
4 922 |
3 658 |
6.5 |
4.8 |
|
Far Eastern Federal District |
4 456 |
4 319 |
4 101 |
4 047 |
355 |
272 |
7.9 |
6.3 |
|
The Republic of Buryatia |
464 |
456 |
422 |
415 |
42 |
41 |
9.0 |
9.3 |
|
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
492 |
500 |
448 |
465 |
44 |
35 |
9.0 |
6.9 |
|
Zabaykalsky Krai |
535 |
532 |
478 |
477 |
57 |
55 |
10.6 |
10.2 |
|
Kamchatka Krai |
192 |
179 |
180 |
170 |
12 |
9 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
|
Primorsky Krai |
1 062 |
1 040 |
977 |
984 |
85 |
56 |
8.0 |
5.4 |
|
Khabarovsk Krai |
751 |
728 |
701 |
701 |
50 |
27 |
6.6 |
3.8 |
|
Amur Oblast |
450 |
410 |
423 |
387 |
27 |
23 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
|
Magadan Oblast |
102 |
88 |
97 |
84 |
5 |
4 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
|
Sakhalin Oblast |
288 |
277 |
265 |
262 |
23 |
15 |
7.9 |
5.3 |
|
JAO |
87 |
79 |
79 |
73 |
8 |
6 |
8.5 |
7.0 |
|
CAO |
33 |
30 |
31 |
29 |
2 |
1 |
5.6 |
3.1 |
According to the order of the Government of the Russian Federation № 1234-r dated June 7, 2019, at present, in all Far Eastern regions, the attraction of labor resources is a priority. Inclusion in this list of the Republic of Buryatia, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Zabaykalsky Krai and Jewish Autonomous Oblast are aimed at meeting the needs of employers in qualified personnel due to the lack of specialists in the regional labor markets with the necessary qualifications. The decision will contribute to the employment of more than 400 people in 2020-2022, as well as attracting labor resources to FEFD territories strategically important for the state.
According to analysts' estimates [6], the main trends in the labor market in the FEFD are: high demand for specialists in working specialties; the popularity of shift work; higher average wages for a number of vacancies due to a shortage of qualified personnel.
Conclusions
Thus, the most important tasks for solving the demographic problems of the Far Eastern Federal District is the migration outflow of the population, and among the priorities, both in scientific research and in practical actions, it should take first place. The next in importance is the solution of the problem of creating attractive conditions for migrants from outside, on the one hand, in order to ensure the growth of the demographic potential of the territory, and on the other hand, additional labor resources to build up the social and infrastructural complex. At the same time, a differentiated approach to the components of this flow and expectations from the participation of certain groups of migrants in the life of the region is important. And the third task in this series is to assess the possibilities for increasing the intensity of reproduction processes.
The research results presented in the article were obtained within the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (the topic "Geographic and geopolitical factors in the inertia, dynamics and development of various ranks of territorial structures of the economy and settlement of the population of Pacific Russia", № АААА-А16-116110810013-5. Section 2).
1. Natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation in 2019 URL: https: //gks.ru/bgd/regl/b19_106/Main.htm (appeal date: June 2020).
2. Zubarevich N.V., Burdyak A.Ya., Hasanova R.R., Mkrtchyan N.V. Social Development and Demography of Russian Regions: Autumn Trends in 2018 // Economic Development of Russia. 2019. V. 26. № 2. P. 76-90.
3. Lisitsyn Yu.P. Public health and health care: textbook. 2nd ed. M.: GEOTAR - media, 2010. 512 P.
4. Mkrtchyan N. Far Eastern Migration: How to Manage? URL:https://eastrussia.ru/material/dalnevostochnaya-migratsiya-like.../ (appeal date: July 2020).
5. Regions of Russia. The main characteristics of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. 2019: Stat. Coll. /Rosstat. - M., 2019. - 766 P.
6. Labor market of the Far East: salaries, trends, prospects //Agency for the Development of Human Capital in the Far East.2019. 27 P. URL: https:// hcfe.ru/uplpad/iblock/516/rinok. pdf (appeal date: July 2020).
7. The size and migration of the population of the Russian Federation in 2018 URL: https: //gks.ru/bgd/regl/b19_107/Main.htm (appeal date: June 2020).
8. The size and migration of the population of the Russian Federation in 2019 URL: https: //gks.ru/bgd/regl/b20_107/Main.htm (appeal date: June 2020).
