Abstract (English):
The article analyzes the impact of COVID-19 coronavirus infection on the development of small and medium-sized businesses. Special attention is paid to the study of the main causes of bankruptcy of enterprises. An assessment of the decline in Russia's GDP during the beginning of the pandemic was made. The necessary measures to reduce the impact of the pandemic on business development are summarized.

Keywords:
pandemic, coronavirus infection, enterprise, industry, bankruptcy, economic activity, financial indicators

Эпидемия коронавирусной инфекции приобрела вид пандемии: ежедневно в разных странах регистрируются новые случаи заражения. Масштабы расширения коронавирусной инфекции COVID-19 привели к развитию негативных последствий во многих отраслях экономики стран. Россия не является исключением: введение ограничительных мер весной 2020 года практически остановило деятельность большого количества предприятий. В этой связи у многих компаний возросла вероятность наступления банкротства. Основной причиной банкротства в период пандемии выступает ухудшение финансовых показателей предприятия, которые непосредственно влияют на: -выполнение долговых обязательств; -осуществление кредитных платежей; -оплату аренды помещений; -выплаты заработной платы, коммунальных платежей и страховых взносов.[2] Пандемия внесла значительные изменения, в первую очередь, в отрасли, которые непосредственно имеют контакт с потребителями. К этим отраслям относят: -предприятия общественного питания; -торгово-развлекательные центры; -концертные залы, театры, кинотеатры; -спортивные учреждения, бассейны; -транспортные предприятия; -предприятия, осуществляющие авиаперевозки; -предприятия легкой промышленности.[1] Анализ экономической активности России в период начала пандемии является относительно неоднозначным. Это обосновывается прогнозными данными снижения ВВП, которые имеют существенные отличия от -4,3% (прогноз консенсус-прогноз НИУ ВШЭ) до 6,6%(прогноз МВФ).[6] Рисунок 1. - Оценка снижения ВВП России в 2020 г. период начала пандемии, % По данным Минэкономразвития, отраженным в обзоре «Картина деловой активности», снижение ВВП за период с января по сентябрь 2020 года составило 3,5% в сравнении с аналогичным периодом предыдущего 2019 года. В третьем квартале спад ВВП замедлился до 3,8%, во втором составил 8%.[6] Наибольший ущерб в результате пандемии получили предприятия малого и среднего бизнеса. [3] Причина - отсутствие «подушки безопасности» и не готовность обеспечить свою деятельность самостоятельно без государственной поддержки, в отличие от крупного бизнеса. Однако необходимо отметить, что положительным моментом здесь выступает гибкость малого и среднего бизнеса, а так же способность быстро и своевременно отреагировать на изменения рынка и адаптироваться к новой действительности. В сложившихся условиях предприятиям пришлось кардинально пересмотреть свою деятельность: - изменить формат работы и стратегическое развитие; - перевести сотрудников на удалённую работу; - перепрофилировать производство и находить новые точки роста. Аналитическим центром НАФИ было произведено исследование о влиянии пандемии на бизнес в период начала ее распространения. Исследование проводилось в форме опроса более 1500 предпринимателей страны, имеющих бизнес в различных сферах. По данным опроса 85% предпринимателей отметили, что распространение коронавирусной инфекции отрицательно повлияло на положение предприятия. 88% считают, что предприятия, имеющие численность персонала до 100 человек, наиболее подвержены возникновению негативных последствий. Процентное соотношение опрошенных предпринимателей о влиянии распространения пандемии на финансовые показатели их бизнеса представлены на рисунке 2.[5] Рисунок 2.- Процентное соотношение опрошенных предпринимателей о влиянии распространения пандемии на финансовые показатели их бизнеса, в % Ожидания предпринимателей о нормализации ситуации в отраслях их деятельности имеет следующий вид: 43% опрошенных предполагали, что ситуация нормализуется не ранее, чем через год, 15% - через два-три года. Остальной процент опрошенных предпринимателей затруднялись ответить. [5] Введенное в июле ослабление карантинных ограничений обеспечило оживление в деятельности малого и среднего бизнеса. Однако последствия, вызванные коронавирусной инфекцией, продолжают сдерживать деловую активность многих предприятий. Так, результаты опроса, проведенные Промсвязьбанком и Российским общественным объединением «Опора России» в августе выявили следующее: у 40% опрошенных предпринимателей отсутствует возможность восстановить свою деятельность и выполнить все обязательства; 23% считают, что практически каждое второе предприятие региона в их отрасли находится под угрозой наступления банкротства. [4] Таким образам, можно сделать вывод, что эпидемия коронавирусной инфекции COVID-19 и связанные с ней ограничения оказали отрицательное влияние на макроэкономические показатели. Для уменьшения влияния пандемии на развитие бизнеса необходима реализация эффективных мерфинансовых и регулятивных политик, которые должны быть направлены на поддержку экономической деятельности при сохранении финансовой стабильности. К таким мерам можно отнести: - предоставление кредитов без залога; -снижение затрат предприятий на тарифы ЖКХ; -субсидирование заработной платы 50% сотрудников; - получение краткосрочных микрозаймов в Фонд оплаты труда по низким процентным ставкам через банки.

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